ABUJA, Nigeria — A new six-year study released by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) is challenging long-held assumptions about the drivers of violence in Nigeria and the religious identity of its victims, with Christians bearing the larger burden.
Released on June 30, the report, “Killings and Abductions in Nigeria (2020–2025),” analyzes violence recorded between October 2019 and September 2025, documenting 79,323 people killed and nearly 35,000 abducted in attacks linked to what ORFA describes as terror groups.
The report argues that armed groups it classifies as “Fulani Terror Groups” were responsible for far more civilian deaths than Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) during the period under review.
According to ORFA’s press release, the findings “overturn long-standing assumptions” about Nigeriaʼs violence by concluding that Boko Haram and ISWAP together accounted for only 12% of civilian killings during the six-year period, while armed groups categorized by the organization as “Fulani Terror Groups” accounted for 44%.
“The data makes this very difficult to ignore,” Frans Vierhout, senior research Analyst at ORFA, said. “We look at how killing occurs. Who they target, where they operate, the seasonal fluctuations of killings — and the evidence points strongly in one direction.”
Vierhout continued: “Violence linked to Fulani militias is the dominant force behind Nigeriaʼs death toll. The Western preoccupation with Boko Haram is, at best, misleading.”
He further warned that the West African nation “is incubating a terror network which the outside world has yet to acknowledge.”
Christians disproportionately affected
Beyond identifying the actors involved, the report places significant emphasis on what it describes as the religious dimension of Nigeriaʼs violence.
ORFA says that after accounting for victims whose religious identity could not immediately be established, an estimated 28,551 Christians were killed during the study period compared with 13,224 Muslims.
The report further states that, relative to local population sizes in affected states, Christians were killed at approximately 4.4 times the rate of Muslims.
The report explains that it includes the religious affiliation of civilian victims because “a variety of contradictory analyses exist concerning the causes of violence in Nigeria.”
“ORFA is not taking sides,” the researchers say. “The observatory wants to let the data speak for itself without purposefully steering towards one or the other of these narratives.”
The researchers argue that identifying victims’ religious backgrounds is necessary for understanding patterns of violence and assessing whether particular communities are disproportionately affected.
Community attacks accounted for most civilian deaths
According to ORFA, approximately three-quarters of civilians killed died during raids on communities rather than in isolated attacks.
The report records 42,033 civilian deaths among the 79,323 people killed during the study period and notes that 75% of civilian fatalities occurred during attacks on farming communities, which often involved abductions, destruction of property, and displacement.
The study also documents 34,773 civilian abductions over the same period.
While Christian and Muslim civilians were abducted in nearly equal numbers overall, ORFAʼs accompanying field research argues that the treatment of hostages differed according to religion.
“The field research reveals lesser value is assigned to a Christian life,” said Steven Kefas, senior research analyst and author of “Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About.”
“From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is not about individual captors. It is a system — consistent across multiple states, armed groups, and multiple years of survivor testimony,” Kefas said.
According to the researchers, Christian captives faced higher ransom demands, longer periods in captivity, greater likelihood of execution, and, in the case of women, sexual violence, forced conversion, and forced marriage.
Report distinguishes armed groups from Fulani population
ORFA stresses throughout both the report and accompanying press release that it distinguishes between armed groups and the wider Fulani community.
The organization says the category “Fulani Terror Groups” refers to armed actors and “is careful to distinguish between armed Fulani terror groups and the Fulani people as a whole, the vast majority of whom are not involved in violence.”
The report also notes that many Muslim victims were themselves targeted.
“It is important to understand this shift because FEM has not only targeted Christian civilians but also non-Fulani Muslim civilians,” the researchers say in the report.
They add: “It follows that Christian civilians were killed or abducted for being Christians, while Muslim civilians were killed or abducted for being non-Fulani.”
Call for greater attention to religious freedom
ORFA concludes the report by urging governments, policymakers, civil society organizations, and international partners to engage closely with the findings and incorporate the religious dimension into efforts to address insecurity in Nigeria.
Among its recommendations, the organization calls for greater attention to freedom of religion or belief, improved community security, stronger protection for vulnerable populations, and an end to what it describes as impunity for perpetrators of violence.
The ORFA researchers argue that overlooking the religious dimension risks producing incomplete responses to security challenges in Africa’s most populous nation.
“We strongly encourage the reader to study the full report,” they say. “It provides vital context and offers a roadmap for addressing the ongoing challenges in Nigeria.”
This story was first published by ACI Africa, the sister service of EWTN News in Africa, and has been adapted by EWTN News.
