A report from the Institute for Family Studies warns that the United States is approaching a demographic turning point, with fertility rates continuing to fall well below replacement levels and population declines increasingly likely in the coming decades unless current trends change.
The report, titled ”The Demographic Dead End: 2026 State of Fertility Report,” presents estimates of fertility trends for every state dating back to 1917. As part of the nation’s 250th anniversary, researchers also reconstructed birth rates in Massachusetts dating to 1660, offering one of the longest historical views of American fertility ever compiled.
According to the report, the U.S. fertility rate has fallen to about 1.6 children per woman, well below the replacement level of about 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population without immigration. Researchers said the decline is no longer a temporary consequence of delayed childbearing but reflects a sustained demographic shift.
The authors projected that if trends continue, the U.S. population will likely peak during the 2050s before entering a prolonged period of decline. They contend that many mainstream demographic forecasts underestimate the pace of falling fertility and assume a rebound that has yet to materialize.
The report notes fertility has declined in nearly every state over the past two decades, though the pace varies geographically. States with higher levels of religious participation, marriage, and family stability generally continue to post comparatively higher birth rates than states with lower rates of marriage and family formation.
Although Americans’ desired family size has remained relatively stable, the gap between how many children they want and how many they ultimately have continues to widen. Surveys consistently show Americans expect to have about two children and ideally would like to have an average of 2.4.
Catherine Pakaluk, professor at The Catholic University of America and author of “Hannahʼs Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth,” cautioned against interpreting that gap as entirely unmet demand.
“I’d be careful treating that gap as pure unmet demand — people fall short of almost everything they say they want, and stated desires are aspirations measured before the real tradeoffs arrive,” Pakaluk told EWTN News. “What ‘I want 2.4’ mostly reflects is a preference stated in the abstract, which softens once a child is weighed against everything else a life can hold.”
Why are fewer Americans having children?
Pakaluk said economic pressures and delayed marriage play a role but are not the primary cause of declining birth rates.
“Cost and later marriage matter at the margin, but they aren’t the engine,” she said. “The driver is a shift in the relative value placed on children.”
She added that prolonged low fertility could reshape American society, leading to “an older population, a thinner worker-to-retiree ratio that strains Social Security and Medicare” as well as “thinner kin networks and more people aging without family nearby.”
Limits of government policy
Researchers argue reversing the trend will require more than financial incentives for parents. Pakaluk agreed that public policy has limits.
“The most honest thing I can say is that the levers government actually controls aren’t the ones that move completed family size,” she said. “Policy can clear obstacles at the margin, but the decisive factors live in culture, faith, and community, where government has a light touch.”
She said measures such as expanding housing supply, strengthening the child tax credit, and removing marriage penalties may help families but cautioned that “no wealthy country has policy-engineered its way back to replacement.”
Global demographic challenge
The findings come as concerns over declining birth rates are growing worldwide. More than two-thirds of countries have fertility rates below replacement, prompting governments across Europe, Asia, and North America to examine ways to encourage family formation.
For the Catholic Church, concern over declining birth rates has long been connected to its teaching on marriage, openness to life, and support for families. Recent popes have repeatedly warned that demographic decline carries not only economic consequences but also cultural and social implications for future generations.
