The American Research Group has released companion New Hampshire primary polls, the results of which are a bit surprising for both parties.
Nikki Haley speaking after Iowa caucus
The ARG survey sees former President Trump and ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley now tied as the candidates turn the corner toward the Granite State primary on Jan. 23. Both candidates were drawing 40% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and now-ex-presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy attracted only 4% each.
New Hampshire has been Trump’s weakest polling state among the pre-Super Tuesday primary and caucus entities. In the ARG polling series, Haley’s support has grown from 29% in its Dec. 20 survey to 33% in the Jan. 3 version, and it’s now at 40%. Trump, however, has also gained support in the polling progression, from 33% to 37% to now 40%.
ARG is the only pollster to show the race this close. The recent surveys done by St. Anselm College, Emerson College, CNN/University of New Hampshire and Suffolk University/USA Today project Trump with leads of 14, 16, 7 and 20 points, respectively.
The survey research firm also tested the Democratic presidential primary in a series of four polls, beginning with their release on Dec. 20. The current study finds U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., posting his best standing against President Biden. According to the results, Biden, clearly identified as a write-in candidate on the questionnaire, would lead Phillips 58-28%, with author Marianne Williamson drawing 3%.
Based upon ARG’s four-poll series, Phillips has consistently increased his support from 17% on Dec. 20 to 21% and 26%, and he’s now at 28% in the Jan. 15 poll. The congressman has been advertising heavily in New Hampshire. In those same polls, Biden increased his share from 51% to 58%, but it has remained stagnant in the two most recent surveys.
Other pollsters don’t see Phillips as strong. In data released on Jan. 9 and 11, Suffolk University/USA Today projects the president holding a whopping 64-6% lead over Phillips. The CNN/University of New Hampshire ballot test results agree. They record a 69-7% Biden advantage. Within this group, only the latest Emerson College poll finds Phillips breaking into double digits. Emerson calculates a 49-16% spread in the president’s favor.
Similar to Haley on the Republican side, Phillips actually leads Biden among the independent voters who plan to participate in the Democratic primary, according to ARG. The independents and Democrats break 46-32% for Phillips. The registered Democrats support the president by 67-22%.
The New Hampshire primary is on Jan. 23, but Biden chose to bypass the state because New Hampshire did not agree to the proposed Democratic National Committee primary calendar changes. Therefore, voters wanting to support the president must write in his name.
The question remains whether Haley and Phillips getting close to Trump and Biden in New Hampshire would have much of an effect on the national nomination campaign. Could the state be the starting point for new trends, or will more favorable challenger results only prove a blip on the path to convincing national primary victories for both the president and former president?
Chances are good that the latter scenario will occur. New Hampshire results don’t tend to be particularly reliable national predictors. Since 1976, the nonincumbent winner of the Granite State primary has gone on to win the GOP nomination just four times. For the Democrats, they also see only four of the New Hampshire winners carrying through to become the party’s national standard-bearer.
At this point, particularly when looking at other state polls around the country, it appears that the New Hampshire results are more likely an outlier than a new trendsetter. Even so, we may be primed to see some interesting results come next Tuesday.
Louisiana’s Second Redistricting Map Released
Yesterday, we reported on the first new congressional map being drawn in the Louisiana special state legislative session. A second plan has now been submitted, but two points are clear when comparing the two versions.
First, the legislature is clearly complying with the court order to draw a second majority–minority seat within the six-member congressional delegation. And second, the targeted GOP House member likely to lose his seat to make room for the new district is five-term Rep. Garret Graves, R-Baton Rouge. Once completed and passed into law, the new court-ordered map will almost assuredly mean a net gain of one seat for the Democrats in the 2024 election.
