DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – The Susquehanna Polling & Research firm released the results of its latest Pennsylvania statewide survey, revealing some apparent inconsistencies.
Presidents Trump and Biden
On one hand, the survey gives President Biden his largest lead in months in the race for president, yet the numbers also forecast a closer U.S. Senate race than any other recent pollster.
The Susquehanna results show Biden assuming an eight-point lead over former President Donald Trump — 47% versus 39% — which is well beyond other pollsters’ findings during the past month.
During that time span, the Bullfinch Group, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, and Quinnipiac University tested the Pennsylvania electorate and determined much closer results. Those firms suggest even support between the Biden and Trump (Bullfinch) to Trump leading by one percentage point (Redfield) and Biden up two (Q-Poll).
The same Susquehanna study that posited an eight-point lead for Biden also suggested a closer U.S. Senate race than others have predicted for Pennsylvania in more than a month. It found Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. edges Republican David McCormick by only a four-point margin, 46 versus 42%.
Other pollsters during the past 30-day period saw much wider margins for the U.S. Senate race. The Bullfinch Group in mid-December found Casey holding a 15-point advantage, while Quinnipiac University projected Casey leading McCormick by 10 percentage points, 53-43%.
The Susquehanna poll — whose results favor Democrats Biden and Casey — is the first recent Pennsylvania Senate poll to fall within the polling margin of error.
Issues Influencing Voters
While the abortion issue has typically polled poorly when tested against other topics as to which is most important, it has proven to be a driver for voter turnout. Susquehanna’s approach to asking voters about abortion seems to produce responses much closer to how recent votes have been cast.
Instead of placing abortion in a list of potential responses as to what would be the most important issue, Susquehanna asks which three of the following nine issues will most influence a voter’s choice of candidate in 2024:
Taxes and spending
Crime and public safety
Abortion
Inflation and the economy
Immigration
Environment and climate change
Education and school issues
Roads and transportation, and
Health care access and affordability
Of the nine issues, crime and safety (46% response), inflation and the economy (44%), and abortion (40%) were the top three.
While inflation and the economy commonly emerge as top issues in polling, crime or abortion rarely rate this high. Yet crime and abortion have been successful vote drivers. Susquehanna’s way of posing the question may prove to be a more accurate test of the electorate.
Party Identification
Another inconsistency in this poll relates to voters’ party affiliation. The study finds an even split between Democrats and Republicans — an equal number (44%) of respondents identifying as members of either party.
Pennsylvania voter registration figures find Democrats edging out Republicans, 45% to 40%. The results of the last election in the state bore this out. In that contest, 40% said they voted straight Democratic or mostly Democratic. Yet Susquehanna found the total voting straight or mostly Republican was just 30%.
Again, the actual vote responses are inconsistent with the self-identified partisan results, but this could suggest a higher recent degree of ticket splitting than we have seen in most elections during the past decade.
We can expect to see a plethora of Pennsylvania polls being conducted throughout the remainder of the election cycle. It won’t be surprising to see a hodgepodge of responses from voters who comprise this swing state.
New Hampshire Governor’s Race
In New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is retiring after what will be four complete terms.
In the GOP primary to replace him as governor, a University of Massachusetts at Lowell survey finds former Republican U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte establishing a big lead over former state Senate president, former acting governor and 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chuck Morse. According to the survey results, Ayotte has the advantage, 54% to 22%.
Democrat candidates squaring off in New Hampshire’s gubernatorial primary are Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington and former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig.
The New Hampshire regular primary cycle is a long one — the primary election is not until Sept. 10.
New Jersey’s 7th District Primary
Many political prognosticators rate New Jersey’s 7th District race as a toss-up for freshman incumbent Tom Kean Jr., R-Westfield, who is being challenged by Democratic former U.S. State Department official Jason Blazakis.
(L to R) New Jersey candidates Kean, Blazakis and Altman
A recent Public Policy Polling survey shows the GOP congressman leading well beyond the polling margin of error. The poll suggests Kean holds a substantial lead over Blazakis: 41% to 33%.
In addition to Blazakis, progressive activist Sue Altman is a declared candidate.
The congressional primary is set for June 7.
In other 7th District news, the man who was unseated by Kean, two-term Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, this week ended his flirtation with entering the U.S. Senate race and endorsed his former colleague, U.S. Rep. Andy Kim, D-Moorestown, in the Democratic primary challenge to embattled Sen. Bob Menendez.
While Malinowski has not firmly rejected running for his former House seat, there is no tangible evidence suggesting he is preparing a House run.
Virginia’s 7th District Primary
There is an open seat up for grabs representing the 7th Congressional District of Virginia, and it’s shaping up to be a crowded race. The primary is set for June 18.
Six Democrats are running in the primary, including state Del. Briana Sewell, D-Woodbridge, Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Franklin, ex-state Del. Elizabeth Guzman, and retired Army Colonel and National Security Council official Eugene Vindman.
Eight Republicans are vying for the seat. Among them is retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton. He received an endorsement from Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, who lost the district’s 2022 7th Congressional District race to Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Glen Allen, in what many believed was an under-performance for the GOP in a more favorable post-redistricting race. Many were surprised Vega chose not to enter the race herself.
The Vega endorsement will help Hamilton unite GOP voters behind his campaign.
