DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – The U.S. House open-seat count has grown again. A new retirement announcement came on Friday.
Democratic Maryland U.S. Rep. Charles ‘Dutch’ Ruppersberger announced he will not seek a 12th term in the House. He is completing more than 30 consecutive years in elective office, first being elected Baltimore county executive in 1994 and then elected representative of Maryland’s 2nd District until his upcoming retirement this year.
He currently serves on the House Appropriations Committee, where he is a member of the Defense subcommittee and the Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies subcommittee.
Johnny Olszewski, Baltimore County Executive
Democratic Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski appears to be Ruppersberger’s heir apparent. There are, however, other rumored potential Democratic candidates, including state House Speaker Adrienne Jones, state Sen. Shelly Hettleman and state Del. Michele Guyton. State Del. Harry Bhandari previously announced a congressional run against Ruppersberger, but this move was likely to get a head start on the rumored upcoming open seat.
The top Republican contender appears to be three-term state Sen. Johnny Ray Salling. He challenged Ruppersberger in 2020 but fared poorly, attracting only 32% support and spending less than $100,000 on his campaign. Still, when he first won his state Senate seat back in 2014, he defeated Olszewski.
The 2nd District covers the area just north of Baltimore City and extends to the Pennsylvania border. It includes approximately two-thirds of Baltimore County, 90% of Carroll County and about 30,000 residents in Baltimore City. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+11. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 52.5D-41.4R partisan lean, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MD-2 as the 62nd most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.
Ruppersberger’s retirement brings the House open-seat count to 47 and makes it the third in Maryland, but the number will soon increase to at least 48. Now that the Louisiana congressional delegation has been officially redistricted due to a court order, it is apparent that Rep. Garret Graves will not seek reelection in the new heavily Democratic 6th District. Once he makes his 2024 reelection announcement, likely moving to District 5 to challenge Rep. Julia Letlow, the open-seat count will again expand.
Of the 47 seats known to be open for the next election, a total of 24 are currently Democratic, while 22 are Republican. Alabama’s court-ordered redistricting plan created a new 2nd District, thus bringing the aggregate total to 47. Among those, four are headed to special elections before the regular general election. The first such vote will occur on Feb. 13 in New York to fill the Long Island seat of expelled U.S. Rep. George Santos.
The high number of open House seats is not unusual for the past decade. Since the 2012 election, we have seen the House campaigns feature between 48 and 63 open seats in each respective election cycle.
Latest South Carolina GOP Presidential Poll Released
The first post-New Hampshire primary survey is out, and former President Donald Trump performed well in former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s home state. The Tyson Group evaluated the Palmetto State Republican electorate immediately after the New Hampshire vote and found Trump holding a large 58-31% advantage over Haley.
The poll sample, including independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary, holds both presidential candidates in high regard. Trump’s approval index is 68-27% favorable to unfavorable, while Haley’s is slightly worse at 56-33%.
South Carolina’s Republican primary is scheduled for Feb. 24, while the Democrats vote on Feb. 3. The state’s residents can expect a great deal of political action coming their way in the next few weeks.
Fighting for 2nd Place in California
As the March 5 Super Tuesday vote approaches, polling in the California Senate jungle primary consistently shows Rep. Adam Schiff nailing down first place, whereas second place is “undecided.” Emerson College’s latest survey, sees Schiff holding a 25-18% lead over GOP baseball great Steve Garvey, and Democratic U.S. Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee trail at 13% and 8%, respectively.
A similar poll from the Los Angeles Times released ten days earlier than the Emerson poll found Schiff leading Porter, Garvey, and Lee in a 21-17-13-9% spread.
Comparing the current Emerson poll with its November California survey, Garvey gained eight percentage points, and Porter remained stagnant. Under the California system, all primary contenders compete on the same ballot with the top two, regardless of percentage reached or party affiliation, advancing to the Nov. 5 general election.
New Jersey’s Dem Field Winnows Down to Two
Democrats want to make a strong run against first-year New Jersey U.S. Rep. Tom Kean, Jr., but one of their candidates just decided to end his congressional bid. Summit Township Councilman Greg Vartan announced on Friday that he would suspend his campaign, leaving former State Department official Jason Blazakis and former Working Families Party State Director Sue Altman as the two competing Democrats.
Former Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, the man Kean unseated in 2022, just announced he would not enter the Senate race. Speculation has surrounded him about seeking a congressional rematch, but there is no tangible evidence that the former Representative is planning to make a 2024 comeback.