DETROIT (ChurchMilitant.com) – Former President Donald Trump met expectations last night in the Iowa caucuses as he became the first nonincumbent candidate to secure a majority of the vote in the state’s history. The Democrats first voted in Iowa back in 1972, with Republicans following in 1976.
It appears he will place first in 98 of the state’s 99 counties, apparently losing by just one vote in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. He also won closely and below 50% in Story County, the home of Iowa State University, and in the state’s most populous county, Polk, home of the capital city of Des Moines. He recorded plurality victories in eight other counties.
Donald Trump giving a victory speech in Iowa.
As of this writing, and mostly in the rural regions, Trump exceeded 60% of the vote in 41 counties and topped 70% in eight more. His best showing appears to be in Keokuk County, where he is recorded at 74%. There is likely to be some change in these numbers once all the votes are counted and canvassed.
As predicted, the battle for second is close, though it appears that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and not the candidate the media proclaimed had the most momentum, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, finished second. DeSantis was hovering around the 21% mark, some 30 points behind Trump. Haley was further back, approaching 19% of the caucus votes. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, as polling also predicted, was well back with just under 8% support.
On the delegate count, a total of 40 delegates will be awarded at the state Republican Party convention later in the year, but the apportionment will be based on the caucus votes.
The candidates next move on to New Hampshire on Jan. 23, where the result is expected to be much closer. While Trump leads in every poll, it does appear that Haley has momentum and is in a position to at least finish a strong second.
New Hampshire is the only one of the early states (meaning the five that vote before Super Tuesday: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan) where Trump does not enjoy a commanding lead. Even in Haley’s home state of South Carolina, polling consistently shows Trump over 50% and leading the former twice-elected governor by a better than 2:1 ratio.
The Associated Press estimated turnout to be in the 130,000 range, far short of the 187,000 record turnout. Looking at the actual vote numbers, the total turnout may be closer to 115,000 when the ballots are all finally tabulated. The poor weather that featured temperatures well below zero and the supposition that the race is not close are the largest factors in seeing a lower participation number.
Now, we can expect to see much speculation and media prodding over whether Gov. DeSantis or Haley will suspend their campaigns. Considering Trump met expectations in Iowa, it will become more difficult for both DeSantis and Haley to continue to attract meaningful attention, increase voter support and convince donors to continue funding their campaign efforts.
It is unlikely that either or both will immediately exit the race, and each is likely to remain active through the South Carolina vote. As has been the case in past elections for both parties, the Palmetto State, rather than either Iowa or New Hampshire, tends to host the most definitive primary elections.
Certainly, if Haley loses her home state to Trump, it will be difficult for her to make the case that she can overtake him for the nomination. If DeSantis has not yet scored a victory in South Carolina, it will also be difficult for him to make the same statement. Therefore, the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24 could well be the day that Trump unofficially clinches the Republican nomination.
Louisiana’s First Redistricting Map Released
On the first day of the special legislative session for congressional redistricting and other issues, state Rep. Mike Echols, R-Monroe, released a map that may become the basis for an eventual final draw. Under the introduced plan, Rep. Garret Graves, R-Baton Rouge, would likely find himself the odd man out, as a new Baton Rouge-anchored 6th District that would be designed to elect an African American representative. The original map was sent back to the legislature for the purpose of increasing minority representation.
The Dave’s Redistricting app statisticians have already released their calculations of all six districts in the proposed plan. Instead of the current 5R-1D plan, we would see a 4R-2D map, with the 6th District going from a partisan lean of 66R-31.9D to one that favors the Democrats to the degree of 56.3D-41.8R. Graves would be placed in the 5th District with fellow Republican incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow, R-Start. In this map version, Letlow’s current constituency would comprise two-thirds of the new district, thus giving her a major advantage if the two ultimately face each other.
Primary Opponent Emerges in Maryland
Two-term state delegate Harry Bhandari, D-Nottingham, announced that he will challenge 11-term U.S. Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, D-Cockeysville, for the Democratic nomination in the May 14 Maryland primary election. Bhandari does not have to risk his seat in the legislature because Maryland awards its state delegates with four-year terms, and he was reelected in 2022. Ruppersberger has yet to announce that he will run for reelection. The Maryland candidate filing deadline is Feb. 9. MD-2 is a safe Democratic seat.